Daily-Dose

Contents

From New Yorker

From Vox

Turkey’s parliament (along with Hungary’s) must still ratify Sweden’s membership, so this is not a totally done deal yet. But NATO can still claim a big victory — and, er, a totally natural photo-op — as the summit begins. This is more than just symbolism, though. This year, NATO expanded, and will gain two new members, bringing the total to 32. Finland (which officially joined in April) and Sweden had long pursued policies of nonalignment, cooperating with NATO, but staying firmly outside the pact. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced Finland and Sweden to reconsider their security interests, and see ascension as a deterrent to future Russian aggression.

Finland’s and Sweden’s membership, then, is a defeat for Vladimir Putin, whose war in Ukraine ultimately spurred the enlargement and potentially, the reshaping, of the alliance. NATO wants to seize on this moment to reinvigorate its mission and reimagine its role in the defense of Europe and its position in the world.

The NATO-Turkey-Sweden drama, briefly explained

Last summer, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden dropped their long-held stance of nonalignment and announced their intention to join NATO. The two European Union countries had a long history of cooperating closely with the alliance, and both are strong, stable democracies — typically the ideal formula for a smooth membership.

Erdoğan saw it differently. The Turkish leader opposed their bids because of what he saw as the countries’ support for Kurdish groups that he regards as terrorist organizations, and because of the countries’ arms embargoes on Turkey. At last year’s NATO summit in Madrid, Turkey, Finland, and Sweden all agreed to a memorandum of understanding that seemed to resolve these issues.

But it didn’t last. Though the Turkish leader ultimately allowed Finland to join, he continued to block Sweden’s entry, saying that it still had not been tough enough on terrorists.

Erdoğan’s definition of terrorists, though, is pretty expansive, and often includes dissidents and others critical of his regime. Even if Turkey has a case, Sweden has to follow due process and rule of law and can’t just, say, extradite a bunch of people on a whim. A recent Quran-burning outside a Stockholm mosque has added to tensions, as Turkey interprets these as Sweden’s permissive attitude toward anti-Islamic protests rather than freedom of speech.

Even so, Sweden made concessions, including strengthening its antiterrorism laws and by agreeing to extradite some individuals, including at least one person convicted of a drug crime in Turkey in 2013. (The person claims the real reason for his extradition is his PKK ties.) But Sweden is also trying to walk a delicate line, as both its government and its citizens have insisted they will not compromise on rule of law to appease Turkey.

In addition to these steps, the hope was that Erdoğan, fresh off a big reelection win this May, would no longer be seeking easy political wins, and so might ease off his Sweden stance by the time this summit rolled around. But just because Erdoğan won another term didn’t mean he would become a different president. As experts said, he would see the election as a way to reset relations with the West — but on his terms. Which meant few Turkish observers thought he’d rush to ratify Sweden’s NATO membership after the election, at least not without getting something in return.

That something might be F-16 fighter jets. The Biden administration has been very clear that it will be happy to let Turkey buy upgraded equipment, and hasn’t even been all that discreet about using it as leverage in this effort to get Sweden into NATO. “I congratulated Erdogan. He still wants to work on something on the F-16s. I told him we wanted a deal with Sweden, so let’s get that done,” President Joe Biden said after Erdoğan’s election win in May.

But it isn’t quite that simple. Congress ultimately has a say over weapons transfers, and it has continued to object to an F-16 deal over the Sweden-NATO standoff, but also other concerns, such as Turkey’s anti-democratic slide and Syria. Over the weekend, Biden and Erdoğan had a chat, where they talked about F-16s, but the Turkish leader appeared to bristle at the idea of a possible quid pro quo, basically saying it was “not correct” to connect the two.

Turns out Erdoğan wanted something unexpected: a revival of his country’s EU membership bid.

Turkey officially entered into ascension negotiations with the EU in 2005, but its democratic and rule-of-law backsliding under Erdoğan, especially in recent years, has put its bid indefinitely on hold.

It’s not really clear whether EU membership is even something Erdoğan really wants. Erdoğan uses his opposition to the West as a way to exert Turkey’s strength and influence, and that nationalism plays well domestically: being the headliner for the first days of the NATO summit and claiming that he revived Turkey’s EU bid may sell well at home. Even better if he ends up getting those F-16s.

What’s also not clear is how the Sweden debacle might further transform relations between the West and Turkey. Turkey is proving itself an unreliable ally and partner. Though Erdoğan conceded in the end, he put the alliance through quite a bit of strain, and the West may have less tolerance in the future for Erdoğan’s antics. NATO will likely lean into its moment of unity now, but it is unlikely to obscure its current fractures for long.

The meeting achieved multiple goals: In it, Biden emphasized “steadfast support for Ukraine” while addressing differences regarding new weapons the US plans to provide, talked through issues involved with NATO’s expansion, and reiterated the US and UK’s special relationship.

The meeting enabled both Biden and Sunak to offer a united front regarding their backing for Ukraine, though they’ve previously differed on how explicit to be about the country’s ability to join NATO. While both agree Ukraine shouldn’t join until its war with Russia is over, the UK has appeared more supportive of Ukraine’s efforts to do so, while the US has been more cautious, due to the risk of opening up direct military conflict with Russia.

“The UK has been at the vanguard of supporting Ukraine,” says Garret Martin, a codirector of the Transatlantic Policy Institute at American University. “On that issue, the UK has been a very important partner in pushing the needle and even influencing the US to escalate.” In a recent CNN interview, Biden indicated that he favored providing a path for Ukraine and addressing additional conditions, rather than bringing the country into the group in the short term.

“I don’t think there is unanimity in NATO about whether or not to bring Ukraine into the NATO family now, at this moment, in the middle of a war,” he said. Sunak has said that Ukraine’s “rightful place” is in NATO.

The leaders also talked about the US’s recent and controversial delivery of cluster bombs to Ukraine. The UK and over 120 other countries have signed a convention that blocks the use of such weapons because of the threat they pose to civilians. The weapons are known to have unintended effects: Unexploded bombs can explode years later when triggered accidentally, hurting or killing civilians.

Biden and Sunak “discussed the commitments that UK has under that convention, both not to produce or use cluster munitions and to discourage their use,” a spokesperson for the prime minister said, according to Sky News. Sunak said he did what he could to convey the UK’s position on the weapons; they will be transferred to Ukraine as scheduled.

Sweden’s NATO membership was also on the agenda. As Vox’s Jen Kirby has explained, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted Finland and Sweden to request NATO membership. Turkey previously opposed both the bids of Finland and Sweden because of “what [President Recep Tayyip Erdogan] saw as the countries’ support for Kurdish groups that he regards as terrorist organizations, and because of the countries’ arms embargoes on Turkey,” Kirby writes. Turkey had previously resolved its objections to Finland’s bid, and on Monday, it announced it had decided to accept Sweden’s bid to join.

Beyond NATO, the two leaders also addressed further action on the Atlantic Declaration, an agreement made in June aimed at increasing cooperation over tech manufacturing, AI and clean energy. After his confab with Sunak, Biden also met with King Charles for the first time, focusing heavily on their mutual interest in efforts to combat climate change. The two spoke with representatives from the private sector to discuss how companies could make investments that help address the issue.

What Biden wants from the NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania

The NATO Summit on Tuesday and Wednesday is a major part of Biden’s trip, during which he’ll engage with leaders from the alliance’s 31 member countries. The goal here is to get all of NATO to agree on a plan for supporting Ukraine longer term.

Ukraine will likely receive a message about its potential inclusion in the bloc rather than an outright decision of whether it’s able to join. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has previously pushed for an explicit signal regarding Ukraine’s invitation into the group. Those in favor of offering Ukraine a clearer path to joining NATO, including a number of European countries, have said that doing so would bolster its security and defenses. Those who are warier of doing so at this time, including the US and Germany, have worried, however, about risking an explicit military confrontation with Russia.

“I think there is more openness of Ukraine joining but there’s crucial differences in how quickly and how clear that guarantee should be,” says Martin.

NATO’s countries are also slated to discuss what a longer-term response to Ukraine could look like, whether that’s a more enduring commitment to military aid or financial support. Up until now, countries have provided Ukraine with enough money and weapons to last a few months. A longer-term plan would signal how committed they are to defending Ukraine, as well as enable the country to make more in-depth strategic plans.

“The most important component is that member states commit to weapon deliveries to Ukraine over a longer period of time,” says Council on Foreign Relations fellow Liana Fix. “The idea is to make this long-term and more formalized. It could be something like three to five years, not just in the next three to five months.”

Sweden’s accession to NATO was another significant issue expected to be on the table before Turkey announced that it was dropping its objections on Monday. Turkey faced notable pressure from other member countries, including the US, to reverse its position. More recently, Turkey had suggested it may be willing to do so if it was granted membership in the European Union, something that is unlikely to happen, and allowed to purchase F-16 fighter jets from the US, something Biden had signaled support for.

As part of the deal to relent on Turkey’s opposition, “Sweden [agreed to] help reinvigorate Turkey’s application to enter the European Union, and NATO [will] establish a new ‘special coordinator for counterterrorism,’” the New York Times reported.

Now, rather than trying to convince Turkey to change its mind, the nations will likely discuss how to integrate Sweden into the alliance. Still, the prolonged conflict over Sweden’s inclusion points to divides within the group. Bridging those gaps will be vital to maintaining the unity of the alliance.

“If Turkey doesn’t shift, there’s potential for a real rift in the alliance,” Bergmann said ahead of Turkey’s announcement.

Why the US is holding a Helsinki meeting with Nordic countries

After the NATO Summit, Biden heads to Helsinki and will be there on Thursday. His visit is meant to commemorate Finland’s inclusion in NATO, and also to send a message to Putin that the US is ready to come to Finland’s aid should Russia violate the border the countries share.

That summit will include gatherings with leaders from multiple Nordic countries including Norway, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, and Denmark. Given that Finland’s now in NATO, the country is likely to see increased support from member countries when it comes to shoring up its defense along its Russian border.

Other issues like access to resources in the Arctic, where Russia and China have established themselves, are poised to be on the table as well. “The Arctic is likely going to become an even bigger element of economic and security competition in the years to come,” says Martin.

Update, July 10, 4:30 pm: This story was originally published on July 10 and updated with the news of Turkey’s announcement about Sweden.

From The Hindu: Sports

From The Hindu: National News

From BBC: Europe

From Ars Technica

From Jokes Subreddit